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Assessing the impact of multicomponent interventions on colorectal cancer screening through simulation: What would it take to reach national screening targets in North Carolina?

April 14 @ 12:00 PM 1:00 PM

Healthy People 2020 and the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable established colorectal cancer (CRC) screening targets of 70.5% and 80%, respectively. While evidence-based interventions (EBIs) have increased CRC screening, the ability to achieve these targets at the population level remains uncertain. We simulated the impact of multicomponent interventions in North Carolina over 5 years to assess the potential for meeting national screening targets. Each intervention scenario is described as a core EBI with additional components indicated by the “+” symbol: patient navigation for screening colonoscopy (PN-for-Col+), mailed fecal immunochemical testing (MailedFIT+), MailedFIT+ targeted to Medicaid enrollees (MailedFIT+forMd), and provider assessment and feedback (PAF+). Each intervention was simulated with and without Medicaid expansion and at different levels of exposure (i.e., reach) for targeted populations. Outcomes included the percent up-to-date overall and by sociodemographic subgroups and number of CRC cases and deaths averted. Each multicomponent intervention was associated with increased CRC screening and averted both CRC cases and deaths; three had the potential to reach screening targets. PN-for-Col+ achieved the 70.5% target with 97% reach after 1 year, and the 80% target with 78% reach after 5 years. MailedFIT+ achieved the 70.5% target with 74% reach after 1 year and 5 years. In the Medicaid population, assuming Medicaid expansion, MailedFIT+forMd reached the 70.5% target after 5 years with 97% reach. This study clarifies the potential for states to reach national CRC screening targets using multicomponent EBIs, but decision-makers also should consider tradeoffs in cost, reach, and ability to reduce disparities when selecting interventions.

Bio: Dr. Karen Hicklin is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Florida. She received her PhD in Industrial Engineering from North Carolina State University, her MS in Mathematics and Statistics from Georgetown University, and her BS from Spelman College where she majored in mathematics. Before beginning her faculty appointment, she completed Postdoctoral Training in the Department of Statistics and Operations and Department of Health Behavior in the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Her research interest includes data-driven approaches to model decision making for healthcare quality improvement. She focuses on using optimization methods to provide solutions and policies for improving healthcare delivery and decreasing health disparities.

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