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Prediction-driven Surge Planning with Applications in the Emergency Department

April 1 @ 12:00 PM 1:00 PM

The UW-ISyE Spring 2022 Colloquium Series continues, as we welcome Dr. Carri Chan from Columbia Business School.

Join us via Zoom.

Dr. Carri Chan
Dr. Carri Chan, Columbia Business School

Abstract: Optimizing emergency department (ED) nurse staffing decisions to balance the quality of service and staffing cost can be extremely challenging, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty in patient-demand. Increasing data availability and continuing advancements in predictive analytics provide an opportunity to mitigate demand-rate uncertainty by utilizing demand forecasts. In this work, we study a two-stage prediction framework that is synchronized with the base (made months in advance) and surge (made nearly real-time) staffing decisions in the ED. We quantify the benefit of the more expensive surge staffing. We also propose a near-optimal two-stage staffing policy that is straightforward to interpret and implement. Lastly, we develop a unified framework that combines parameter estimation, real-time demand forecasts, and staffing in the ED. High fidelity ED simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework can reduce staffing costs by 8% – 17% while guaranteeing timely access to care. Joint work with Jing Dong and Yue Hu.

Bio: Carri W. Chan is a Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk and Operations Division and the Faculty Director of the Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Management Program at Columbia Business School. Her research is in the area of healthcare operations management. Her primary focus is in data-driven modeling of complex stochastic systems, efficient algorithmic design for queuing systems, dynamic control of stochastic processing systems, and econometric analysis of healthcare systems. Her research combines empirical and stochastic modeling to develop evidence-based approaches to improve patient flow through hospitals. She has worked with clinicians and administrators in numerous hospital systems including Northern California Kaiser Permanente, New York Presbyterian, and Montefiore Medical Center. She is the recipient of a 2014 National Science Foundation (NSF) Faculty Early Career Development Program (CAREER) award, the 2016 Production and Operations Management Society (POMS) Wickham Skinner Early Career Award, and the 2019 MSOM Young Scholar Prize. She currently serves as a co-Department Editor for the Healthcare Management Department at Management Science. She received her BS in Electrical Engineering from MIT and MS and PhD in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University.