Sébastien Philippe receives over $550,000 to advance nuclear war effects modeling

The University of Wisconsin–Madison has received $551,000 in new research funding to support the development of open, science-based tools for modeling the humanitarian, environmental, and global consequences of nuclear weapon use. Of this total, $491,000 comes through a Carnegie Corporation of New York–led consortium to reduce nuclear dangers, with support from the Corporation, PAX sapiens, and Longview Philanthropy. An additional $60,000 is provided by the Ploughshares Fund.

The awards will support an integrated research program led by Sébastien Philippe, Assistant Professor in the Department of Nuclear Engineering and Engineering Physics, focused on modeling the cascading consequences of nuclear conflict. The work spans immediate effects such as blast, fire, and radioactive fallout, as well as longer-term disruptions to climate, food systems, public health, global supply chains, and the global economy. A parallel component examines the consequences of nuclear detonations in space and their potential impacts on satellite infrastructure in low Earth orbit.

This research comes at a time when the United Nations General Assembly has established a new United Nations Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear War, launched in September 2025 to assess the physical and societal consequences of nuclear war at local, regional, and planetary scales for the first time in over forty years. Philippe serves as a member of the panel and as its Scientific Secretary.

“The risk of nuclear weapon use is rising, but our collective understanding of what nuclear war would actually mean for people, societies, and the planet remains dangerously incomplete,” said Philippe. “This support allows us to build open, transparent modeling tools that link immediate nuclear effects to longer-term global consequences—and to bring that analysis directly into diplomatic and policy conversations.”

The project builds on Philippe’s prior work on nuclear weapons effects and radioactive fallout modeling. A central aim is to improve the evidence base available to policymakers, diplomats, civil society, and the public. The research team will produce peer-reviewed publications, open datasets, visualizations, and scenario analyses, and will convene expert workshops to stress-test assumptions and coordinate integration with other modeling efforts. In addition to advancing research, the funding will support the training of early-career scientists working at the intersection of nuclear science, global security, and diplomacy.

“Nuclear weapons policy is too often shaped by abstract deterrence theory or models that cannot be independently evaluated,” Philippe said. “University-based research can play a critical role by providing technically sound, open analysis that helps decision makers—and the public—grapple with the real consequences of nuclear weapon policies, ensuring that national security choices are made with a full understanding of their implications.”